LTV prediction was the 2018-2023 problem. The 2026 problem is sub-second decisioning inside the session — a different infrastructure discipline that most publishers have not built yet.
Why 15 people is a specific structural choice — not too few, not too many. What AI-native actually means in daily operations, and the failure modes we watch for.
Slots defined social casino's first decade but hit a ceiling. Fishing mechanics solve engagement, native social, and visual novelty as core-loop byproducts — not bolt-ons. The next-decade case.
What six years at Tencent actually teaches, what we deliberately left behind at 15 people, and what we had to learn from scratch — a founder's honest breakdown for partners and investors.
Asia's social and fishing gaming market hits $8.7B in 2026, projected $20.6B by 2035. Yet Western distribution has missed it entirely. The 2026-2028 cross-border window explained.
DTC mobile gaming reached $17B in 2026 and stopped being a workaround. The 30% fee narrative is misleading — publishers who understand DTC as a structural shift are 12-18 months ahead.
California's AB 831 outlaws sweepstakes casinos on January 1, 2026. New York and Maine follow. Why compliance-first publishers with true social casino + DTC will win the next cycle.